United States presidential election in Nevada, 2008

United States presidential election in Nevada, 2008

November 4, 2008

Nominee Barack Obama John McCain Party Democratic Republican Home state Illinois Arizona Running mate Joe Biden Sarah Palin Electoral vote 5 0 Popular vote 533,736 412,827 Percentage 55.2% 42.7%

County Results   Obama—50-60%   Obama—<50%   McCain—<50%   McCain—50-60%   McCain—60-70%   McCain—70-80%

President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President Barack Obama Democratic

Elections in Nevada
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Ballot measures 2002 Question 2
Las Vegas Mayoral elections 2011 2015
None of These Candidates

The 2008 United States presidential election in Nevada was part of the 2008 United States presidential election, which took place on November 4, 2008 throughout all 50 states and D.C.. Voters chose 5 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Nevada was won by Democratic nominee Barack Obama with a 12.5% margin of victory. Both campaigns heavily campaigned here in 2008, as although Obama held a lead in the polls, it was not unreasonable to think that John McCain, a nationally prominent Senator from neighboring Arizona had a legitimate chance of having Nevada swing to his corner. Most news organization considered the state as Obama would win, or a blue state, but some still considered it as a swing state during the last week of the election.^[1] In the past four presidential elections, the margin of victory has always been below 5 percentage points. George W. Bush carried Nevada twice in 2000 and 2004 while Bill Clinton won the Silver State both times as well in 1992 and 1996. With the anti-Republican sentiment growing nationwide and the fact that personally, McCain barely campaigned in Nevada, Nevada swung wildly into the Democratic column in 2008 as Barack Obama carried the state by 12.50 points over John McCain, receiving 55.15% of the total statewide vote to McCain's 42.65%. It was the first time since 1988 that the margin of victory was in double digits.

Primaries

• Nevada Republican caucuses, 2008
• Nevada Democratic caucuses, 2008

Campaign

Predictions

There were 17 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

1. D.C. Political Report: Republican^[2]
2. Cook Political Report: Leaning Democrat^[3]
3. Takeaway: Leaning Obama^[1]
4. Election Projection: Leaning Obama^[4]
5. Electoral-vote.com: Leaning Democrat^[5]
6. Washington Post: Leaning Obama^[6]
7. Politico: Leaning Obama^[7]
8. Real Clear Politics: Leaning Obama^[8]
9. FiveThirtyEight.com: Leaning Obama^[6]
10. CQ Politics: Leaning Democrat^[9]
11. New York Times: Leaning Democrat^[10]
12. CNN: Leaning Democrat^[11]
13. NPR: Leaning Democrat^[6]
14. MSNBC: Toss Up^[6]
15. Fox News: Toss Up^[12]
16. Associated Press: Toss Up^[13]
17. Rasmussen Reports: Toss Up^[14]

Polling

In the beginning of the general election, it was a dead heat. McCain did win several polls. However, since September 30, Obama swept every other poll taken in the state and tied one poll. The final 3 polls averaged 50% to 44% in favor of Obama.^[15] On election day, Obama won the state with 55% and by a double digit margin of victory, a much better performance than polls showed.

Fundraising

John McCain raised a total of $1,980,771 in the state. Barack Obama raised $2,328,659.^[16]

Advertising and visits

Obama and his interest groups spent $9,622,022. McCain and his interest groups spent $6,184,427.^[17] Each campaign visited the state 7 times.^[18]

Analysis

Nevada is a swing state that has voted for the winner of every presidential election since 1912 with the sole exception of 1976 when the state voted for Republican Gerald Ford over Democrat Jimmy Carter. In 2008, McCain of neighboring Arizona was leading most polls taken March until the end of September (around the time of the 2008 financial crisis), when Obama of Illinois started taking a lead in almost every poll conducted from the beginning of October on, some of which in double-digits.^[19] The subprime mortgage crisis hit Nevada hard, and McCain's statement that "the fundamentals of the economy are strong" undoubtedly hurt him in a state that was devastated by the economic meltdown.

When the actual 2008 election came, Obama carried the Silver State by a very safe margin of 12.50 percentage points, larger than most polls anticipated. This was due almost entirely to Obama winning the state's three largest jurisdictions: Clark County, home to Las Vegas; Washoe County, which contains Reno; and the independent city of Carson City,^[20] which combine for 88% of Nevada's total population. Hispanics also played a large role in Obama's landslide victory. According to exit polling, they composed 15% of voters in Nevada and broke for Obama by a three-to-one margin.^[21] With their support, Obama carried Washoe County by a comfortable 12-point margin and a somewhat narrower one-point margin in Carson City. These two areas hadn't gone Democratic since Lyndon B. Johnson won them in 1964. Obama also won Clark County by double-digits, the first time a Democrat won the county by more than single-digits since 1964. McCain ran up huge margins in most of the more rural counties, which have been solidly Republican for decades. However, it was not nearly enough to overcome his deficit in Clark, Washoe and Carson City. Indeed, Obama's 122,000-vote margin in Clark County would have been enough by itself to carry the state.

At the same time, Democrats picked up a U.S. House seat in Nevada's 3rd Congressional District, which is based in Clark County and consists of most of the Las Vegas suburbs. Democratic State Senator Dina Titus defeated incumbent Republican Jon Porter by 5.14 points with several third parties receiving a small but significant proportion of the total statewide vote. At the state level, Democrats picked up one seat in the Nevada Assembly and picked up two seats in the Nevada Senate, giving the Democrats control of both chambers of the Nevada Legislature for the first time in decades.

Results

Results breakdown

By county

By congressional district

Barack Obama carried two of the state’s three congressional districts both held by Democrats while John McCain carried the one and only congressional district held by a Republican.

Electors

Technically the voters of Nevada cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Nevada is allocated 5 electors because it has 3 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 5 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 5 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.^[23] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 5 were pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:^[24]

1. Maggie Carlton
2. Tahis Castro
3. Ruby Duncan
4. Ron Hibble
5. Theresa Navarro

References

See also

State results of the United States presidential election, 2008
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