United States Senate election in Utah, 2016

United States Senate election in Utah, 2016
Utah
November 8, 2016
 
Nominee Mike Lee Misty Snow
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 760,241 301,860
Percentage 68.1% 27.1%

U.S. Senator before election

Mike Lee
Republican

 Elected U.S. Senator

Mike Lee
Republican

The 2016 United States Senate election in Utah took place on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Utah, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

The primaries took place on June 28. Misty K. Snow won the Democratic nomination, becoming the first transgender woman in the history of the United States to become a major party's nominee for the Senate. [1]

Incumbent Republican Senator Mike Lee won re-election to a second term in office.[2]

Republican primary

It was thought that Lee, a Tea Party Republican, might face a primary challenge from a member of the more establishment wing of the Party following his role in the unpopular 2013 federal government shutdown, which caused his approval ratings to drop precipitously.[3][4][4][5][6] However, since that time, his approval ratings have risen significantly.[7]

Changes to Utah's primary system could adversely affect Lee's chances at renomination.[8] Presently, Utah political parties hold conventions, where delegates attend and vote for candidates. Only if a candidate fails to gain at least 60% of the vote do the top two finishers proceed to a statewide primary election.[8] In 2010, incumbent Senator Bob Bennett finished third at the convention behind Lee and businessman Tim Bridgewater and was eliminated, with Lee defeating Bridgewater in the subsequent primary election. Lee's approval rating is much higher among the smaller group of more conservative convention delegates and a recent change in the law, backed by the group Count My Vote, allows candidates to bypass the convention by collecting signatures to advance to the primary.[8] Thus, a less conservative challenger could challenge Lee in the primary, appealing to more moderate Republican and unaffiliated voters, who could participate in the primary.[8] The constitutionality of the changes have been challenged in court by the Utah Republican Party.[8]

One possible challenger to Lee is former Governor of Utah and former United States Secretary of Health and Human Services Mike Leavitt, one of the founders of Count My Vote,[9] though he has denied interest in running.[8][10] Businessman and philanthropist Jon Huntsman, Sr., who has called Lee "an extremist" and "an embarrassment to the state of Utah" because of his "extremely radical" positions, may help bankroll an establishment, business-minded challenger, such as Zions Bank President A. Scott Anderson, Salt Lake Chamber of Commerce President Lane Beattie, University of Utah political scientist Kirk Jowers, Mitt Romney's son Josh Romney or former State Party Chairman Thomas Wright.[6] An effort to draft Huntsman, Sr.'s son, Jon Huntsman, Jr., the former Governor of Utah, former United States Ambassador to China under Barack Obama and a candidate for President in 2012,[11] was unsuccessful, with Huntsman ruling out a run against Lee.[12]

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

Democratic primary

Candidates

Jonathan Swinton was the first Democrat to announce his candidacy for U.S. Senate, filing on August 10.[27][28] The other candidates filing for the nomination were Craig Oliver, Jade Tuan Quoc Vo, and Misty K. Snow. Snow filed on March 3.[29] Oliver withdrew before the state convention.[29] Vo was eliminated in the first round of balloting.[30]

Swinton faced criticism at the April 23 state convention from delegates who said he was pro-life,[30] a criticism based primarily on Swinton's September 26 op-ed in the Salt Lake Tribune in which he describes himself as a "conservative Democrat" and "pro-life" while also calling for "a full investigation of Planned Parenthood."[31] Swinton tried unsuccessfully to avoid discussing his views on abortion at the state convention.[30]

After two rounds of balloting, neither Snow nor Swinton received the 60% of the vote they needed to secure the Democratic nomination.[30] As a result, the two faced off in a June 28 primary, which Snow won.[32]

Declared

Eliminated at Convention

Withdrawn

Declined

Polling

A Dan Jones & Associates poll for UtahPolicy.com showed Snow leading with Democratic voters 33% to Swinton's 20%, as well as with independent voters, 23% to Swinton's 10%. The majority of the voters that were surveyed were undecided. The survey was administered from May 2–10, 2016 to 588 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.04%.[38]

Primary results

Democratic primary results[39]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Misty K. Snow 28,928 59.40
Democratic Jonathan Swinton 19,774 40.60
Total votes 48,702 100.00

Third Party and Independent Candidates

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[41] Safe R September 9, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[42] Safe R September 19, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[43] Safe R September 2, 2016
Daily Kos[44] Safe R September 16, 2016
Real Clear Politics[45] Safe R September 15, 2016

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Mike
Lee (R)		 Misty
Snow (D)		 Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 1,479 ± 4.6% 60% 36% — 4%
SurveyMonkey October 31–November 6, 2016 1,428 ± 4.6% 60% 36% — 4%
CBS News/YouGov November 3–5, 2016 762 ± 4.9% 69% 23% 2% 6%
Y2 Analytics→ November 1–3, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 62% 22% 8% 7%
SurveyMonkey October 28–November 3, 2016 1,327 ± 4.6% 61% 35% — 4%
Monmouth University October 30–November 2, 2016 402 ± 4.9% 61% 28% 5% 5%
SurveyMonkey October 27–November 2, 2016 1,247 ± 4.6% 61% 35% — 4%
SurveyMonkey October 26–November 1, 2016 1,057 ± 4.6% 61% 34% — 5%
HeatStreet/Rasmussen October 29–31, 2016 750 ± 4.0% 59% 27% 5% 7%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 1,078 ± 4.6% 62% 34% — 4%
HeatStreet/Rasmussen October 14–16, 2016 750 ± 4.0% 57% 25% 8% 10%
Monmouth University October 10–12, 2016 403 ± 4.9% 60% 31% 3% 6%
UtahPolicy/Dan Jones September 1–9, 2016 605 ± 4.0% 60% 23% 7% 10%
Public Policy Polling August 19–21, 2016 1,018 ± 3.1% 51% 21% 8% 20%
UtahPolicy/Dan Jones July 18–August 4, 2016 858 ± 3.3% 57% 22% 9% 12%
SurveyUSA June 6–8, 2016 1,238 ± 2.8% 51% 37% 4% 8%

References

  1. ↑ Nelson, Louis (29 June 2016). "Two transgender candidates named 'Misty' win primaries". Politico. Retrieved 29 June 2016.
  2. 1 2 3 Bob Bernick (April 26, 2014). "GOP Delegates Give Rousing Reception to Sen. Mike Lee". Utah Policy. Retrieved December 12, 2014.
  3. 1 2 3 Robert Gehrke (October 10, 2013). "Most Utahns disapprove of Sen. Mike Lee, want him to compromise". Salt Lake Tribune. Archived from the original on October 10, 2013. Retrieved November 8, 2014.
  4. 1 2 3 4 Philip Rucker (October 22, 2013). "In Utah, tea party favorite Sen. Lee faces GOP backlash over government shutdown". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 8, 2014.
  5. ↑ Quin Monson (October 9, 2013). "Senator Lee and the Shutdown". Utah Data Points. Retrieved November 8, 2014.
  6. 1 2 3 4 Manu Raju (December 22, 2014). "Tea partier braces for primary challenge from the establishment". Politico. Retrieved December 22, 2014.
  7. ↑ MATT CANHAM (September 29, 2014). "Poll shows rebound in Utah's Sen. Mike Lee's approval rating". The Salt Lake tribune. Retrieved April 14, 2015.
  8. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Robert Gehrke (December 11, 2014). "Mike Lee could be vulnerable if Count My Vote changes stick". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved December 12, 2014.
  9. 1 2 Bob Bernick (December 7, 2012). "Bob Bernick's Notebook - Could Republicans Challenge Lee From His Left?". Utah Policy. Retrieved December 12, 2014.
  10. 1 2 Bob Bernick (June 9, 2014). "A 2016 Leavitt Campaign Not Likely". Utah Policy. Retrieved December 12, 2014.
  11. 1 2 Lisa Riley Roche (February 16, 2015). "Huntsman could run against Lee in 2016 Senate race, Republicans say". KSL.com. Retrieved February 18, 2015.
  12. 1 2 Lisa Riley Roche (February 17, 2015). "Huntsman: I won't challenge Sen. Mike Lee". Deseret News. Retrieved February 17, 2015.
  13. 1 2 Canham, Matt (March 11, 2015). "Sen. Mike Lee's re-election backed by Jon Huntsman Jr., Zions' Scott Anderson". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved May 24, 2015.
  14. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Abby Livingston (April 2, 2014). "Next Utah Races to Watch Are for Senate". Roll Call. Retrieved April 3, 2014.
  15. ↑ Bernick, Bob (January 21, 2015). "Poll: Herbert's Approval Ratings Remain High; Lt. Gov. Cox Relatively Unknown". Utah Policy. Retrieved December 19, 2015.
  16. ↑ Roche, Lisa Riley (April 25, 2015). "Former Romney finance director courting challenger to Sen. Mike Lee". KSL-TV. Retrieved April 27, 2015.
  17. ↑ Roche, Lisa Riley (April 28, 2015). "Provo businessman declines push to run against Sen. Mike Lee". Deseret News. Retrieved April 29, 2015.
  18. ↑ Roche, Lisa Riley (April 16, 2015). "Kirk Jowers leaves U.'s Hinckley Institute for job in private sector". KSL-TV. Retrieved May 30, 2015.
  19. 1 2 Canham, Matt (April 12, 2015). "Mike Lee could be a lock for re-election to Senate". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved May 30, 2015.
  20. ↑ Jacobsen, Morgan (November 24, 2015). "Newly selected UCAT president declines position, accepts counteroffer". KSL. Retrieved December 19, 2015.
  21. ↑ "Sean Reyes takes oath of office as Utah's top lawman". Daily Herald. January 5, 2015. Retrieved May 30, 2015.
  22. ↑ Lisa Riley Roche (April 21, 2015). "Josh Romney: I won't run against Sen. Mike Lee, but another Republican should". Deseret News.
  23. ↑ http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865652122/Former-GOP-presidential-candidate-Carly-Fiorina-endorses-Sen-Mike-Lee.html?pg=all
  24. ↑ http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/featured-articles/11195-Press%20Release
  25. ↑ David Sherfinski (November 12, 2014). "Club for Growth endorses six GOP senators for re-election in 2016". The Washington Times. Retrieved November 12, 2014.
  26. ↑ "U.S. Senate Endorsements". Senate Conservatives Fund. Retrieved May 24, 2015.
  27. ↑ Nelson, Bob. "1st in Run Against Senator Lee is a Washington Outsider and Democrat". kuer.org. Retrieved 2016-04-28.
  28. ↑ "Details for Candidate ID : S6UT00238". Federal Election Commission. Retrieved Jul 3, 2016.
  29. 1 2 3 "2016 Candidate Filings - Lieutenant Governor's Office: Elections". elections.utah.gov. Retrieved 2016-04-28.
  30. 1 2 3 4 5 Tribune, Matt Canham The Salt Lake. "Weinholtz wins Dem nomination in Utah governor's race, says wife under investigation for pot possession". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved 2016-04-28.
  31. ↑ Swinton, Jonathan. "Op-ed: Shutting down the government is no way to lead". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved 2016-04-28.
  32. ↑ Leonard, Wendy (2016-04-23). "Utah Dems nominate Weinholtz to run for governor". DeseretNews.com. Retrieved 2016-04-28.
  33. 1 2 Canham, Matt (August 17, 2015). "Sen. Mike Lee's first challenger is marriage therapist Jonathan Swinton, an untested Democrat". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved August 19, 2015.
  34. ↑ "2016 Candidate Filings - Lieutenant Governor's Office: Elections". elections.utah.gov. Retrieved 2016-04-28.
  35. ↑ Cheney, Kyle (December 29, 2014). "16 in '16: The new battle for the Senate". Politico. Retrieved December 29, 2014.
  36. ↑ Riley Roche, Lisa (April 8, 2015). "Poll: Josh Romney would be a tough opponent for Sen. Mike Lee". Deseret News. Retrieved August 19, 2015.
  37. ↑ Roche, Lisa Riley (July 21, 2015). "Doug Owens announces another run for congress". KSL News. Retrieved July 21, 2015.
  38. ↑ Schott, Bryan. "Poll: Most Voters Undecided Between Snow and Swinton". utahpolicy.com. Retrieved 2016-05-16.
  39. ↑ "Utah Election Official Results". Utah Secretary of State. Retrieved October 20, 2016.
  40. 1 2 Woodruff, Daniel (August 11, 2016). "Utah Sen. Mike Lee on track to win second term, new poll shows". KUTV. Retrieved September 2, 2016.
  41. ↑ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for September 9, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 9, 2016.
  42. ↑ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
  43. ↑ "2016 Senate Ratings (September 2, 2016)". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 3, 2016.
  44. ↑ "Election Outlook: 2016 Race Ratings". Daily Kos. Retrieved September 17, 2016.
  45. ↑ "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 15, 2016.

External links

Official campaign websites
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