Balearic parliamentary election, 2015

Balearic parliamentary election, 2015

24 May 2015

All 59 seats in the Parliament of the Balearic Islands 30 seats needed for a majority Opinion polls Registered 766,383 5.5% Turnout 437,838 (57.1%) 1.7 pp   First party Second party Third party   Leader José Ramón Bauzà Francina Armengol Alberto Jarabo Party PP PSIB–PSOE Podemos Leader since 11 September 2009 26 February 2012 14 February 2015 Leader's seat Majorca Majorca Majorca Last election 35 seats, 46.7% 19 seats, 24.9% Did not contest Seats won 20 15 10 Seat change 15 4 10 Popular vote 123,183 83,804 63,489 Percentage 28.5% 19.4% 14.7% Swing 18.2 pp 5.5 pp New party   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Gabriel Barceló Jaume Font Xavier Pericay Party MÉS PI C's Leader since 27 May 2006 2 November 2012 13 April 2015 Leader's seat Majorca Majorca Majorca Last election 5 seats, 9.6% 0 seats, 6.0%[lower-alpha 1] 0 seats, 0.3% Seats won 9 3 2 Seat change 4 3 2 Popular vote 66,199 34,237 27,589 Percentage 15.3% 7.9% 6.4% Swing 5.7 pp 1.9 pp 6.1 pp

Most voted party by district.   PP   PSIB–PSOE

President before election José Ramón Bauzà PP Elected President Francina Armengol PSIB–PSOE

The 2015 Balearic parliamentary election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 9th Parliament of the Balearic Islands, the unicameral regional legislature of the Spanish autonomous community of the Balearic Islands. The election was held concurrently with the regional elections for 12 other autonomous communities, as well as the 2015 municipal elections.

All 59 seats in the Parliament were up for election, determining the President of the Balearic Islands. Voting was in four electoral districts corresponding to the islands of Majorca, Menorca, Ibiza and Formentera. Majorca elected thirty three members, Menorca thirteen, Ibiza twelve and Formentera one.

Voting was on the basis of universal suffrage in a secret ballot. The electoral system used was closed list proportional representation with seats allocated in each electoral district using the D'Hondt method. Only lists which polled at least 3% of the votes in a particular district (including votes "en blanco" i.e. for "none of the above") were eligible for seats.^[1]

In the 2011 election, the People's Party, led by José Ramón Bauzà regained their majority. A series of controversial and unpopular decrees and laws proceeded, the most discussed ones involving the language of the Balearic Islands—Catalan in its island dialects—and the education. These generated record-attendance demonstrations, the most important one on 27 September, 2013, when more than 70,000 people demonstrated in Palma protesting, amongst others, against the changes in the language decree. It established more school-hours in Spanish and English, when the majority of public schools and their teachers were not prepared to carry it out.^[2]

In addition, the Spanish politics were observing the growth of new parties like We Can in the left and young parties like Citizens in the center-right. In the Balearic Islands politics, the Socialist Party of Majorca formed a coalition with Initiative Greens and Nationalist Agreement in Majorca and Minorca called More. The disbanded Majorcan Union had resulted in two parties with similar political views in the 2011 election: Convergence for the Isles—the political heir of Majorcan Union—and Regionalist League of the Balearic Islands—a split party with critics of Majorcan Union—. They both united to create a new party called Proposal for the Isles to contest in the 2015 election not only in Majorca, but also in Minorca and Ibiza.

All in all, it resulted in the loss of the parliamentary majority by the People's Party in the Balearic Islands. The Socialist Party of the Balearic Islands also saw losses, but could form a government led by socialist Francina Armengol with More—that obtained its best historical result—and the outer support of We Can—being the third party in number of parliamentary seats—. It was the first time that parties from the left had a majority of seats in the Balearic parliament. Opposition, along with the People's Party, was formed by Proposal for the Isles and Citizens, both obtaining their whole representation in Majorca, but being close to another seat in Ibiza—in the case of Proposal for the Isles—and Minorca—where Ciutadella de Menorca People's Union represented the Minorcan branch of Citizens—.

Opinion polls

Vote

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. However, if such date is unknown, the date of publication will be given instead.

Date	Polling Firm/Source										Others	Lead
24 May 2015	Regional Election	28.5	18.9	15.3	7.9	2.0	0.9	0.5	6.4	14.7	4.9	9.6
Exit polls
17 May	NC-Report	33.8	21.2	8.2	4.5	4.2	0.4	w.PSOE	13.6	12.0	2.1	12.6
27 Apr–8 May	IBES	31.0	20.0	9.0	4.0	4.0		1.0	15.0	16.0	1.0	11.0
22–27 Apr	Sigma-2	33.6	17.5	11.6	3.5	4.5		0.4	10.0	14.1	4.8	16.1
19 Apr	Gadeso	35.0	18.0	9.5	4.0	2.5	0.5	w.PSOE	6.0	14.5	10.0	17.0
23 Mar–19 Apr	CIS	30.0	22.3	9.6	2.4	2.1	0.5	0.4	12.4	14.5	5.8	7.7
16–25 Mar	IBES	33.0	17.0	7.0	6.0	5.0	3.0	1.0	10.0	16.0	2.0	16.0
16–23 Mar	NC-Report	35.2	20.3	6.8	5.1	5.1	0.8	w.PSOE	12.3	12.2	2.2	14.9
26 Jan–6 Feb	IBES	35.0	19.0	8.0	5.0	4.0	2.0	1.0	5.0	19.0	2.0	16.0
2015
10–18 Sep	IBES	38.0	21.0	9.0	4.0	3.0	4.0	w.PSOE		15.0	6.0	17.0
3–13 Jun	IBES	38.0	21.0					w.PSOE			41.0	17.0
25 May 2014	EP Election	27.5	22.0	7.3	N/A	8.9	6.7	N/A	2.3	10.3	15.0	5.5
2014
15 Oct–12 Nov	NC-Report	37.1	25.2					w.PSOE			37.7	11.9
3–14 Jun	IBES	41.0	27.0	11.0	4.0	6.0	5.0	w.PSOE			6.0	14.0
15 Apr–10 May	NC-Report	42.2	30.1	14.5				w.PSOE			13.2	12.1
2013
3–10 Dec	IBES	41.0	24.0	11.0	6.0	5.0	5.0	w.PSOE			8.0	17.0
28–31 May	IBES	43.0	25.0	10.0	4.0	4.0	5.0	w.PSOE			9.0	18.0
18 Mar	Gadeso	39.5	23.0	8.5	4.5			w.PSOE			24.5	16.5
1–15 Feb	IBES	45.0	23.0	11.0	3.0	5.0	6.0	w.PSOE			7.0	22.0
2012
20 Nov 2011	General Election	49.6	28.9	7.2	N/A	4.9	4.2	N/A	N/A		5.2	20.7
8 Oct	IBES	48.0	22.0	11.0	2.0	6.0	5.0	w.PSOE			6.0	26.0
22 May 2011	Regional Election	46.7	24.9	9.6	5.8	2.3	2.1	w.PSOE	0.2		9.4	21.8

Seat projections

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 30 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of the Balearic Islands.

30 seats needed for majority

Date	Polling Firm/Source										Others
24 May 2015	Regional Election	20	14	9	3	0	0	1	2	10	0
24 May	GAD3	20−23	13−15	4−6	0−2	0−1	0	1	5−7	9−11	0
Exit polls
17 May	NC-Report	22−23	14−15	4−5	0	1−2	0	w.PSOE	8−9	8−9	0
27 Apr–8 May	IBES	19−22	13−15	4−6	0−2	0−2	0	1	5−7	8−11	0
22–27 Apr	Sigma-2	22−25	13−14	6	0	0−1	0	1	4−5	8−11	0
19 Apr	Gadeso	23−26	14−17	5−6	0−2	0	0	1	3−5	7−10	0
23 Mar–19 Apr	CIS	19−20	14−15	5	0	0	0	1	9	10	0
16–25 Mar	IBES	22−24	13−15	4−6	2−3	1−2	0	1	3−5	8−10	0
16–23 Mar	NC-Report	24−25	14−15	4−5	2−3	1−2	0	w.PSOE	6−7	6−7	0
26 Jan–6 Feb	IBES	26−27	12−15	3−4	1−3	0−1	0	1	0−2	12−13	0
2015
10–18 Sep	IBES	27	16	5	1	0−1	0−1	w.PSOE	0	8−10	0
3–13 Jun	IBES	27	15	6	0−1	3−4	2	w.PSOE	0	5	0
25 May 2014	EP Election	(20)	(18)	(4)	N/A	(6)	(5)	N/A	(0)	(6)	(0)
2014
15 Oct–12 Nov	NC-Report	28−29	19−20	6−7	1−2	1−2	1−2	w.PSOE	0		0
3–14 Jun	IBES	28−29	21	5	1	2−3	1	w.PSOE	0		0
15 Apr–10 May	NC-Report	31−32	19−20	7−9	0	0	0	w.PSOE	0		0
2013
3–10 Dec	IBES	28	19	6	2	2	2	w.PSOE	0		0
28–31 May	IBES	33	18	6	1−2	0	0−1	w.PSOE	0		0
2012
20 Nov 2011	General Election	(34)	(20)	(4)	N/A	(1)	(0)	N/A	N/A		(0)
22 May 2011	Regional Election	35	19	5	0	0	0	w.PSOE	0		0

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 24 May 2015 Balearic Islands Parliament election results

Party		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Won	+/−
	People's Party (PP)	123,183	28.52	–18.16	20	–15

Results by district

Formentera

Ibiza

Majorca

Minorca

Post-election

Investiture vote

First round: 30 June 2015
Absolute majority (30/59) required

Candidate: Francina Armengol
Choice		Vote
		Parties	Votes
	Y Yes	PSIB-PSOE (14), Podem (10), Més (6), MpM (3), GxF (1)	34 / 59
	No	PP (20), C's (2)	22 / 59
	Abstentions	PI (3)	3 / 59
Source: Historia Electoral

References

Elections in the Balearic Islands
Parliamentary elections	1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 next
General elections	1977 1979 1982 1986 1989 1993 1996 2000 2004 2008 2011 2015 2016 next

Regional elections in Spain in the 2010s
2010	November: Catalonia
2011	May: Aragon Asturias Balearic Islands Canary Islands Cantabria Castile and León Castile-La Mancha Ceuta Extremadura La Rioja Madrid Melilla Murcia Navarre Valencian Community
2012	March: Andalusia Asturias October: Basque Country Galicia November: Catalonia
2015	March: Andalusia May: Aragon Asturias Balearic Islands Canary Islands Cantabria Castile and León Castile-La Mancha Ceuta Extremadura La Rioja Madrid Melilla Murcia Navarre Valencian Community September: Catalonia
2016	September: Basque Country Galicia