Sheila Bird

Sheila Bird
Sheila Bird
Born	(1952-05-18) 18 May 1952
Nationality	British (Scottish)
Fields	Biostatistics
Institutions	Medical Research Council, University of Strathclyde
Known for	Statistical thinking at the interface of public health and other jurisdictions.
Notable awards	OBE FRSE, Royal Statistical Society medals (Guy bronze, 1989; Bradford Hill, 2000; Chambers, 2010).[1]
Spouse	Dr. A Graham Bird (deceased)[2]

Sheila Macdonald Bird (née Gore, born 18 May 1952) OBE FRSE, British biostatistician whose assessment of misuse of statistics in the British Medical Journal (BMJ) and BMJ series ‘Statistics in Question’ led to statistical guidelines for contributors to medical journals.^[3] Bird’s doctoral work on non-proportional hazards in breast cancer found application in organ transplantation where beneficial matching was the basis for UK’s allocation of cadaveric kidneys for a decade. Bird led the Medical Research Council (MRC) Biostatistical Initiative in support of AIDS/HIV studies in Scotland, as part of which Dr A. Graham Bird and she pioneered Willing Anonymous HIV Surveillance (WASH) studies in prisons.^[4] Her work with Cooper on UK dietary bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) exposure revealed that the 1940–69 birth cohort was the most exposed and implied age-dependency in susceptibility to clinical vCJD progression from dietary BSE exposure since most vCJD cases were younger, born in 1970–89. Bird also designed the European Union’s robust surveillance for transmissible spongiform encephalopathies in sheep which revolutionized our understanding of scrapie.^[5]

Record linkage studies in Scotland were central to Bird’s work (with others) on the late sequelae of Hepatitis C virus infection and on the morbidity and mortality of opioid addiction. Her team first quantified the very high risk of drugs-related death in the fortnight after prison-release, in response to which Bird and Hutchinson proposed a prison-based randomized controlled trial of naloxone, the opioid antagonist, for prisoners-on-release who had a history of heroin injection.^[6] Bird introduced the Royal Statistics Society’s statistical seminars for journalists and awards for statistical excellence in journalism. She is the first female statistician to have been awarded three medals by the Royal Statistical Society (Guy bronze, 1989; Austin Bradford Hill, 2000; Chambers, 2010).^[6]

Early life and education

Educated at Elgin Academy where the mathematics master, Lewis Grant, introduced her to statistics.^[7] Joint-honours in mathematics-statistics from Aberdeen University followed, and a research assistantship in medical statistics at Edinburgh University (1974–76) where Gore, Jones and Rytter quantified the misuse of statistics in the BMJ. In his editorial, Stephen Lock “took on the chin” their 1977 paper and championed statistical guidelines for contributors to medical journals. Doctoral work followed, begun in Edinburgh and supervised by Stuart Pocock, on the analysis of survival in breast cancer which Gore undertook part-time during a lectureship in statistics at Aberdeen University (1976–80) before joining the Medical Research Council’s Biostatistics Unit in Cambridge in 1980.^[8]

Career

Bird works for the Medical Research Council (MRC), as Programme Leader at their Biostatistics Unit in Cambridge.^[8]

Publication of Gore’s 23 articles on ‘Statistics in Question’ in the BMJ led to her running World Health Organization (WHO) workshops on research methods in diarrhoeal diseases for third world paediatricians, through which Gore and Dilip Mahalanabis designed and piloted a clinical record-form which was subsequently adopted for all WHO-funded randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of oral rehydration solutions (ORS).^[9] The common record facilitated a subsequent exploratory analysis of individual patient data by Gore and Fontaine. This suggested benefit from lower osmolarity solutions, which was then formally tested in a series of RCTs with global change to low osmolarity ORS adopted in 2001.

Back in Cambridge, Gore worked with paediatrician Dr Colin Morley on the British Randomized Evaluation of ALEC Therapy (BREATHE), the first RCT to demonstrate a one-third reduced mortality in very premature babies by administration at birth of artificial surfactant. ALEC (artificial lung expanding compound) was named for Alec Bangham FRS, who developed it. Non-Cambridge neonatologists’ prior belief was elicited by ‘trial roulette’ and had centred on a one quarter-reduction, the effect-size that BREATHE was powered to detect.^[10]

Work on transplantation statistics in the 1980s with Gilks and Bradley led to beneficial matching being adopted as the basis of UK’s exchange of cadaveric donor kidneys. To estimate the potential for cadaveric solid organ donation from brainstem-dead donors, Gore designed UK’s first confidential audit of all deaths in intensive care units which revealed that relatives’ refusal –rate (then 30%, since risen to 40%), not doctors’ failure to ask, was the fundamental problem.^[11]

Gore led the MRC Biostatistical Initiative in support of AIDS/HIV studies in Scotland (1990–1995), which included projection of Scotland’s cases of severe immunodeficiency (so-called CD200 cases) and HIV epidemiological studies in prisons, both with co-investigator, clinical immunologist Dr A. Graham Bird.^[12]

Gore and Bird married in September 1999. Six weeks later, Graham was diagnosed with glioblastoma multiforme and died in January 2000 since when, in his honour, Sheila has published under her married name.^[13]

Bird’s work at the interface of public health and other jurisdictions continued. A series of record-linkage studies in Scotland on the late sequelae of Hepatitis C virus infection (with Hutchinson and Goldberg) and on the high risk of drugs-related death soon after prison-release (or after hospital-discharge for drug-treatment clients) followed.^[6] With Cooper, she estimated UK’s dietary exposure to BSE by birth-cohort and they deduced lower susceptibility to vCJD-progression from dietary BSE exposure at older ages. Bird also designed the European Union’s robust surveillance at abattoirs for late-stage transmissible spongiform encephalopathies in sheep.^[14]

Bird served on four working parties of the Royal Statistical Society (RSS): Counting with Confidence, Statistics and Statisticians in Drug Regulation, Performance Monitoring in the Public Services (as chair) and Statistical Issues in First-in-Man Studies.^[15] As RSS’s vice-president for external affairs (2005–09), Bird introduced statistical seminars for journalists and the RSS’s awards for statistical excellence in journalism; and supported Straight Statistics by contributing over 100 articles, many on H1N1 pandemic influenza, others based on her 20-weekly reporting with Colonel Clive Fairweather on military fatality-rates in Afghanistan by nationality and cause. Bird led the RSS’s campaign for legislation to end the late registration of inquest deaths in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.^[6]

Honours and awards

Bird was appointed OBE in 2011 for services to social statistics.^[2] She was made a Fellow of the Royal Society of Edinburgh in 2012.^[16]

Personal life

She was married to the late Dr. A Graham Bird.^[2]

References