Climate change in Europe
Climate change in Europe describes the climate change related issues in Europe. This includes the climate politics, contribution in the global warming and the influence of the global warming in Europe. According to international climate experts global temperature rise should not exceed 2 °C to prevent the most dangerous consequences of the climate change. It is estimated to demand at least 80-85% emission reductions in the EU during 2008-2050 with reductions as soon as technically possible. It is estimated that from the now living persons alive are 70% in the year 2050. Emission reduction means development and implementation of new energy technology solutions. Some people consider that the technology revolution has already started in Europe since the markets of the renewable technology have annually grown.[1]
European Union climate chief is Connie Hedegaard since 10 February 2010.
Effects
Climate change affects both people and the environment in the world and Europe. Human-induced climate change has the potential to alter the prevalence and severity of extreme weather as storms, floods, droughts, heat waves and cold waves. These extreme weather changes may increase the severity of the diseases for animals and humans. The heat waves will increase the forest fires. Experts have warned that the climate change may increase the number of global climate refugees from 150 million in 2008 to 800 million in future. International agreement of refugees does not recognize the climate change refugees.
The summer of 2003 was probably the hottest in Europe since at latest ad 1500, and unusually large numbers of heat-related deaths were reported in France, Germany and Italy. According to Nature (journal) it is very likely that the heat wave was human induced by greenhouse gases.[2]
According to European Environment Agency (2012) the average temperature over land in Europe in the last decade was 1.3 °C warmer than the preindustrial level, which makes it the warmest decade on record. Exceptional melting in the Greenland ice sheet was recorded in the summer of 2012. Arctic sea ice extent and volume have been decreasing much faster than projected.[3]
Observed impacts
| Record meteorological events In Europe.[4] | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| When | Where | What | Cost |
| 2003 | Europe | hottest summer in at least 500 years | 70,000 deaths |
| 2000 | England and Wales | wettest autumn on record since 1766 | £1.3 billion |
| 2007 | England and Wales | wettest July on record since 1766 | £3 billion |
| 2007 | Greece | hottest summer since 1891 | wildfires |
| 2010 | Russia | hottest summer since 1500 | $15 billion. 55,000 deaths |
| 2011 | France | hottest and driest spring since 1880 | grain harvest down by 12% |
| 2012 | Arctic | sea ice minimum | |
| Costs are estimates | |||
In the absence of climate change, extreme heat waves in Europe would be expected to occur only once every several hundred years. In addition to hydrological changes, grain crops mature earlier at higher temperatures, which may reduce the critical growth period and lead to lower grain yields The Russian heat wave in 2010 caused grain harvest down by 25 percent, government ban wheat exports, and losses were 1% of GDP. Russian heat wave 2010 estimate for deaths is 55,000.[4]
The Arctic sea ice reached a record minimum in September 2012. It halved the area of ice covering the Arctic Ocean in summers over the last 30 years.[4]
Emissions
Coal
The annual CO2 emissions from coal were in the OECD Europe during 2005-2008 average equal to the year 2000. There are however country specific differences. During 1990-2008 emissions from coal were the highest in Europe in Russia, Germany, Poland, Ukraine and United Kingdom. Among the top 20 coal emission countries only four countries have increased their annual average emissions from coal during 2005-2008 compared to the year 1990, namely Turkey (181%), Finland ( 121%), Italy (115%) and Greece (108%).
Many East European countries, including ex East Germany, Russia, Poland, Ukraine, Slovakia, Estonia and Hungary, and also United Kingdom, declined significantly their coal dependency from 1990 to 2000. However, the statistics of IEA gives no evidence of decline of coal dependency during 2000-2008 in Europe. Among the top 20 Belgium is the only European country that has clearly declined its climate change emissions from coal during 2000-2008.
| Annual CO2 emissions from coal in Europe (Mt) (IAE) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 1990 | 2000 | 2000-4 | 2005-8= # | # / 2000 | # / 1990 | # / capita | ||
| 1 | Russia | 141.8 | 687 | 441 | 427 | 421 | 95% | 61% | 3.0 |
| 2 | Germany | 82.1 | 505 | 337 | 342 | 337 | 100% | 67% | 4.1 |
| 3 | Poland | 38.1 | 287 | 217 | 211 | 210 | 97% | 73% | 5.5 |
| 4 | Ukraine | 46.3 | 283 | 116 | 127 | 139 | 120% | 49 % | 3.0 |
| 5 | UK | 61.4 | 238 | 138 | 144 | 147 | 106% | 62 % | 2.4 |
| 6 | Turkey | 71.1 | 58 | 89 | 80 | 105 | 118% | 181% | 1.5 |
| 7 | Kazakhstan | 15.7 | 153 | 80 | 90 | 108 | 135% | 71% | 6.9 |
| 8 | Czech | 10.4 | 121 | 84 | 80 | 77 | 92% | 64% | 7.4 |
| 9 | Italy | 59.9 | 55 | 43 | 54 | 63 | 146% | 115% | 1.1 |
| 10 | Spain | 45.6 | 74 | 81 | 79 | 70 | 86% | 95 % | 1.5 |
| 11 | France | 64.1 | 74 | 58 | 50 | 52 | 90% | 70% | 0.8 |
| 12 | Romania | 21.5 | 50 | 29 | 32 | 35 | 123% | 71% | 1.6 |
| 13 | Greece | 11.2 | 33 | 37 | 38 | 36 | 96% | 108 % | 3.2 |
| 14 | Serbia | 7.4 | 41 | 35 | 37 | 33 | 94% | 79% | 4.5 |
| 15 | Bulgaria | 7.6 | 37 | 25 | 28 | 29 | 116% | 80 % | 3.9 |
| 16 | Netherlands | 16.4 | 32 | 29 | 32 | 30 | 103% | 95 % | 1.8 |
| 17 | Finland | 5.3 | 21 | 21 | 29 | 25 | 122% | 121% | 4.8 |
| 18 | Belgium | 10.7 | 39 | 29 | 23 | 18 | 61% | 45 % | 1.6 |
| 19 | Denmark | 5.5 | 24 | 15 | 18 | 18 | 114% | 74% | 3.2 |
| 20 | Austria | 8.3 | 16 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 108% | 97% | 1.9 |
| TOP 20 | 730.4 | 2,827 | 1,920 | 1,935 | 1,970 | 103% | 70% | ||
| Mt = million tonnes of CO2 # = 2005-2008 Top 20 countries and the number order based on emissions in 2008 | |||||||||
Legislation
There is in place national legislation, international agreements and the EU directives. The EU directive 2001/77/EU promotes renewable energy in the electricity production.
Stern report 2006
British government and economist Nicholas Stern published in 2006 the Stern report. The Review states that climate change is the greatest and widest-ranging market failure ever seen, presenting a unique challenge for economics. The Review provides prescriptions including environmental taxes to minimize the economic and social disruptions. The Stern Review's main conclusion is that the benefits of strong, early action on climate change far outweigh the costs of not acting.[5] The Review points to the potential impacts of climate change on water resources, food production, health, and the environment. According to the Review, without action, the overall costs of climate change will be equivalent to losing at least 5% of global gross domestic product (GDP) each year, now and forever. Including a wider range of risks and impacts could increase this to 20% of GDP or more.
No-one can predict the consequences of climate change with complete certainty; but we now know enough to understand the risks. The review leads to a simple conclusion: the benefits of strong, early action considerably outweigh the costs.[6]
EU energy plan 2008
In the end of 2008 the parliament of the EU approved the climate and energy plan including:[1]
- 20% emission cut of climate gases from 1990 to 2020
- 20% increase in the share of renewable energy from 1990 to 2020
- 20% increase of the energy efficiency from 1990 to 2020.
Critics
The critics include that European companies, like in other OECD countries, have moved the energy intensive, polluting and climate gas emitting industry to Asia and South America. In respect to climate change there are no harmless areas. Carbon emissions from all countries are equal. The agreements exclude significant factors like deforestation, aviation and tourism, the actual end consumption of energy and the history of emissions. Negotiations are country oriented but the economical interests are in conflict between the energy producers, consumers and the environment.
External links
- Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012 EEA 2012
- Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections in Europe 2012 - Tracking progress towards Kyoto and 2020 targets EEA 2012
- Approximated EU GHG inventory: early estimates for 2011 EEA 2012
References
- 1 2 Ilmastonmuutos otettiin yhä vakavammin; Yle 30.12.2008 (Finnish)
- ↑ Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003 Stott, Stone & Allen, Nature 432, 610-614 (2 December 2004)
- ↑ Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012 EEA 2012
- 1 2 3 Why a 4 degree centrigrade warmer world must be avoided November 2012 World Bank
- ↑ Stern, N. (2006). "Summary of Conclusions". Executive summary (short) (PDF). Stern Review Report on the Economics of Climate Change (pre-publication edition). HM Treasury. Retrieved 2011-04-28.
- ↑ Sir Nicholas Stern: Stern Review : The Economics of Climate Change, Executive Summary,10/2006 Archived September 20, 2008, at the Wayback Machine.