Bristol North West (UK Parliament constituency)

Bristol North West
Borough constituency for the House of Commons
Boundary of Bristol North West in Avon for the 2010 general election.
Location of Avon within England.
County	Bristol
Population	100,809 (2011 census)^[1]
Electorate	73,920 (December 2010)^[2]
Current constituency
Created	1950
Member of parliament	Charlotte Leslie (Conservative)
Number of members	One
Overlaps
European Parliament constituency	South West England

Bristol North West is a constituency^{[n 1]} to the north and north-west of Bristol city centre represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament since 2010 by Charlotte Leslie of the Conservative Party.^{[n 2]} The constituency is a considered a bellwether, as it has reflected the national result at every general election since October 1974.

Constituency profile and history

This constituency is a longstanding bellwether, having elected the candidate of the winning party in the nine general elections since October 1974 (inclusive) which elected the Labour Government 1974-1979.

Party positions altered completely in 2010 with the Liberal Democrat candidate, Paul Harrod achieving second place with a slightly larger one party swing, of 11.4%, than winning candidate Charlotte Leslie and saw a fresh Labour Party candidate suffer a large decrease in percentage of the Labour vote of 20.8%.^{[n 3]} This changed in 2015 with the Conservatives winning the seat with an increased majority of 9.5%, and Labour moving back into second place.

Boundaries

1950-1955: The County Borough of Bristol wards of Avon, Durdham, Horfield, and Westbury-on-Trym.

1955-1983: The County Borough of Bristol wards of Avon, Henbury, Horfield, Southmead, and Westbury-on-Trym.

1983-1997: The City of Bristol wards of Avonmouth, Henbury, Horfield, Kingsweston, Lockleaze, Southmead, and Westbury-on-Trym, and the District of Northavon wards of Filton Charborough, Filton Conygre, Filton Northville, Stoke Gifford North, and Stoke Gifford South.

1997-2010: The City of Bristol wards of Avonmouth, Henbury, Horfield, Kingsweston, Lockleaze, and Southmead, and the District of Northavon wards of Filton Charborough, Filton Conygre, Filton Northville, Patchway Callicroft, Patchway Coniston, Patchway Stoke Lodge, Stoke Gifford North, and Stoke Gifford South.

2010–present: The City of Bristol wards of Avonmouth, Henbury, Henleaze, Horfield, Kingsweston, Lockleaze, Southmead, Stoke Bishop, and Westbury-on-Trym.

The Bristol Channel islands of Flat Holm and Steep Holm are also part of this constituency^[3]

Following the review by the Boundary Commission for England into parliamentary representation in the former county of Avon Somerset and Gloucestershire the constituency had boundary changes at the 2010 general election.^[4] In particular, the constituency is now wholly contained within the City of Bristol: the areas of Filton, Patchway, Stoke Gifford, Bradley Stoke and Aztec West which are in the South Gloucestershire district were transferred to a new Filton and Bradley Stoke constituency. At the same time, the areas of Stoke Bishop, Henleaze and Westbury-on-Trym were gained from Bristol West.

Members of Parliament

	Member^[5]	Party
1950	Gurney Braithwaite	Conservative
1955	Christopher Boyd	Labour
1959	Martin McLaren	Conservative
1966	John Ellis	Labour
1970	Martin McLaren	Conservative
Oct 1974	Ronald Thomas	Labour
1979	Michael Colvin	Conservative
1983	Michael Stern	Conservative
1997	Doug Naysmith	Labour
2010	Charlotte Leslie	Conservative

Elections

Elections in the 2010s

General Election 2015: Bristol North West^[6]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Conservative	Charlotte Leslie	22,767	43.9	+6.0
	Labour	Darren Jones	17,823	34.4	+8.5
	UKIP	Michael Frost	4,889	9.4	+7.1
	Liberal Democrat	Clare Campion-Smith	3,214	6.2	-25.3
	Green	Justin Quinnell^[7]	2,952	5.7	+4.7
	TUSC	Anne Lemon^[8]	160	0.3	+0.3
Majority			4,944	9.5	+6.0
Turnout			51,805	67.6	-0.9
	Conservative hold		Swing

Going into the 2015 general election, this was the 117th most marginal constituency in Great Britain, the Liberal Democrats requiring a swing from the Conservatives of 3.3% to take the seat (based on the result of the 2010 general election).^[9]

In 2015, the Class War Party announced Steve Norman as its candidate,^[10] but he failed to stand.

General Election 2010: Bristol North West^[11]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Conservative	Charlotte Leslie	19,115	38.0	+5.5
	Liberal Democrat	Paul Harrod	15,841	31.5	+6.6
	Labour	Sam Townend	13,059	25.9	−12.2
	UKIP	Robert Upton	1,175	2.3	+0.7
	English Democrat	Ray Carr	635	1.3	−0.4
	Green	Alex Dunn	511	1.0	+1.0
Majority			3,274	6.5
Turnout			50,336	68.5	−0.3
	Conservative gain from Labour		Swing	15.45^{[n 4]}

Elections in the 2000s

General Election 2005: Bristol North West^[12]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Labour Co-op	Doug Naysmith	22,192	46.7	−5.4
	Conservative	Alastair Watson	13,230	27.9	−0.8
	Liberal Democrat	Bob Hoyle	9,545	20.1	+4.2
	UKIP	Christopher Lees	1,132	2.4	−0.1
	English Democrat	Michael Blundell	828	1.7	N/A
	Socialist Alternative	Graeme Jones	565	1.2	N/A
Majority			8,962	18.9
Turnout			47,492	61.1	+0.7
	Labour Co-op hold		Swing	−2.3

General Election 2001: Bristol North West^[13]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Labour Co-op	Doug Naysmith	24,236	52.1	+2.2
	Conservative	Charles Hansard	13,349	28.7	−0.6
	Liberal Democrat	Peter Tyzack	7,387	15.9	+2.7
	UKIP	Diane Carr	1,140	2.5	N/A
	Socialist Labour	Vince Horrigan	371	0.8	-0.1
Majority			10,887	23.4
Turnout			46,483	60.4	−15.1
	Labour Co-op hold		Swing	+1.4

Elections in the 1990s

General Election 1997: Bristol North West^[14]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Labour	Doug Naysmith	27,575	49.9	+7.6
	Conservative	Michael Stern	16,193	29.3	−13.0
	Liberal Democrat	Ian Parry	7,263	13.2	−1.0
	Independent Labour	Charles Horton	1,718	3.1	N/A
	Referendum	John Quintanillia	1,609	2.9	N/A
	Socialist Labour	Giles Shorter	482	0.9	N/A
	BNP	Stephen Parnell	265	0.5	N/A
	Natural Law	Thomas Leighton	140	0.3	N/A
Majority			11,382	20.6
Turnout			55,245	73.7
	Labour gain from Conservative		Swing	10.3

General Election 1992: Bristol North West^[15]^[16]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Conservative	Michael Stern	25,354	42.3	−4.3
	Labour Co-op	Doug Naysmith	25,309	42.3	+7.7
	Liberal Democrat	John D. Taylor	8,498	14.2	−4.6
	Independent Ind SD	Mrs Hilary S. Long	729	1.2	N/A
Majority			45	0.1	−11.9
Turnout			59,890	82.3	+2.9
	Conservative hold		Swing	−6.0

Elections in the 1980s

General Election 1987: Bristol North West^[17]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Conservative	Michael Stern	26,953	46.6
	Labour	Terence William Walker	20,001	34.6
	Social Democratic	John Marcus Givens Kirkcaldy	10,885	18.8
Majority			6,952	12.0
Turnout				79.4
	Conservative hold		Swing	+2.7^{[n 5]}

General Election 1983: Bristol North West^[18]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Conservative	Michael Stern	24,617	43.9
	Labour Co-op	Dr. Sarah R. Palmer	18,290	32.6
	Social Democratic	Mrs Hilary S. Long	13,228	23.6
Majority			6,327	11.3
Turnout				76.9
	Conservative hold		Swing	-8.65^{[n 6]}

Elections in the 1970s

General Election 1979: Bristol North West
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Conservative	Michael Colvin	25,915	48.6
	Labour	Ronald Thomas	21,238	39.8
	Liberal	G.A. Davis	5,857	11.0
	National Front	P.M. Kingston	264	0.5
	Campaign for a More Prosperous Britain	T.L. Keen	73	0.1
Majority			4,677	8.8
Turnout				81.3
	Conservative gain from Labour		Swing	5.0

General Election October 1974: Bristol North West
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Labour	Ronald Thomas	22,156	42.1
	Conservative	Martin McLaren	21,523	40.9
	Liberal	E. David	8,914	17.0
Majority			633	1.2
Turnout				79.3
	Labour gain from Conservative		Swing	2.3

General Election February 1974: Bristol North West
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Conservative	Martin McLaren	21,569	39.8
	Labour	Ronald Thomas	20,919	38.6
	Liberal	E. David	11,312	20.9
	Independent	T.E. Wetherall	440	0.8
Majority			650	1.2
Turnout				82.5
	Conservative hold		Swing	-0.9

General Election 1970: Bristol North West
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Conservative	Martin McLaren	24,124	47.6
	Labour	John Ellis	23,075	45.5
	Liberal	H.J. Stevens	3,299	6.5
	Communist	W.E. Williams	227	0.5
Majority			1,049	2.1
Turnout				78.0
	Conservative gain from Labour		Swing	1.75

Elections in the 1960s

General Election 1966: Bristol North West
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Labour	John Ellis	24,195	50.1
	Conservative	Martin McLaren	23,526	48.7
	Communist	B. Underwood	595	1.2
Majority			669	1.4
Turnout				82.0
	Labour gain from Conservative		Swing	1.8^{[n 7]}

General Election 1964: Bristol North West
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Conservative	Martin McLaren	22,129	45.1
	Labour	David John Watkins	21,030	42.9
	Liberal	T.G. Douglas	5,883	12.0
Majority			1,099	2.2
Turnout				83.1
	Conservative hold		Swing	-6.9^{[n 8]}

Elections in the 1950s

General Election 1959: Bristol North West
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Conservative	Martin McLaren	24,938	52.0
	Labour	Christopher Boyd	23,019	48.0
Majority			1,919	4.0
Turnout				82.9
	Conservative gain from Labour		Swing	3.9

General Election 1955: Bristol North West
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Labour	Christopher Boyd	22,950	51.9
	Conservative	Sir Gurney Braithwaite	21,295	48.1
Majority			1,655	3.8
Turnout				79.1
	Labour gain from Conservative		Swing	5.5

General Election 1951: Bristol North West
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Conservative	Gurney Braithwaite	28,394	53.6
	Labour	C. Morris	24,553	46.4
Majority			3,841	7.2
Turnout				86.1
	Conservative hold		Swing	2.2^{[n 9]}

General Election 1950: Bristol North West
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Conservative	Gurney Braithwaite	23,884	47.7	N/A
	Labour	C. Morris	21,394	42.7	N/A
	Liberal	Florence Mary Pugh	4,784	9.6	N/A
Majority			2,490	5.0	N/A
Turnout				85.1	N/A
	Conservative win (new seat)

Constituency created 1950 from parts of Bristol West and Thornbury constituencies

Notes and references

Notes

↑ A borough constituency (for the purposes of election expenses and type of returning officer)
↑ As with all constituencies, the constituency elects one Member of Parliament (MP) by the first past the post system of election at least every five years.
↑ This was one of the largest negative one-party swings for a Labour candidate nationally in 2010.
↑ Labour to Conservative: for Others to Conservative the swing was 10.1%
↑ Others to Conservative; Labour to Conservative swing was 0.7%
↑ Conservative to Liberal/SDP. Labour to Conservative: 2.5%
↑ 4.6% swing Others to Labour
↑ Conservative to Others
↑ Others to Conservative swing: 5.9%

References

↑ "Bristol North West: Usual Resident Population, 2011". Neighbourhood Statistics. Office for National Statistics. Retrieved 3 February 2015.
↑ "Electorate Figures - Boundary Commission for England". 2011 Electorate Figures. Boundary Commission for England. 4 March 2011. Archived from the original on 6 November 2010. Retrieved 13 March 2011.
↑ "Working with boundaries in our Web services | Business and government | Ordnance Survey". www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk. Retrieved 2016-11-30.
↑ "Parliamentary Constituencies in Bath and North East Somerset, Bristol, and South Gloucestershire" (PDF). Boundary Commission for England. 20 June 2001. Retrieved 1 October 2010.
↑ "Bristol North West 1950-". Hansard 1803-2005. UK Parliament. Retrieved 2 February 2015.
↑ "Election Data 2015". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 17 October 2015. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
↑ "Archived copy". Archived from the original on 2015-04-02. Retrieved 2015-03-27.
↑ http://www.tusc.org.uk/17049/19-12-2014/more-tusc-candidates-in-place-as-election-challenge-grows
↑ Ransome Mpini; Charlotte Thornton; John Walton; Marcelo Zanni (24 February 2014). "Election 2015: The political battleground". BBC News. Retrieved 29 January 2015.
↑ https://yournextmp.com/person/4726/steve-norman
↑ "Election Data 2010". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 17 October 2015. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
↑ "Election Data 2005". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
↑ "Election Data 2001". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
↑ "Election Data 1997". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
↑ "Election Data 1992". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
↑ "Politics Resources". Election 1992. Politics Resources. 9 April 1992. Retrieved 6 December 2010.
↑ "Election Data 1987". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
↑ "Election Data 1983". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.

External links

nomis Constituency Profile for Bristol North West — presenting data from the ONS annual population survey and other official statistics.

Constituencies in South West England (55)

Conservative (51)	Bath Bournemouth East Bournemouth West Bridgwater and West Somerset Bristol North West Camborne and Redruth Central Devon Cheltenham Chippenham Christchurch Devizes East Devon Filton and Bradley Stoke Forest of Dean Gloucester Kingswood Mid Dorset and North Poole Newton Abbot North Cornwall North Devon North Dorset North East Somerset North Somerset North Swindon North Wiltshire Plymouth Moor View Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Poole Salisbury Somerton and Frome South Dorset South East Cornwall South Swindon South West Devon South West Wiltshire St Austell and Newquay St Ives Stroud Taunton Deane Tewkesbury The Cotswolds Thornbury and Yate Tiverton and Honiton Torbay Torridge and West Devon Totnes Truro and Falmouth Wells West Dorset Weston-super-Mare Yeovil

Labour (4)	Bristol East Bristol South Bristol West Exeter

South West England European constituency: Conservative (2) Green (1) Labour (1) UKIP (2)

Coordinates: 51°30′10″N 2°37′04″W / 51.50286°N 2.61783°W / 51.50286; -2.61783

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